Two of the best passing teams meet in Super Bowl 55 with the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Bucs expected slug it out in a high-scoring affair. Oddsmakers set the points total at 56 points. At the South Point Casino and Sports Book in Las Vegas, you can make numerous Super Bowl prop bets including the range of total points and the total margin of victory.
The modern pass-happy NFL resulted in higher-scoring games. From a television executive standpoint, increased scoring and a higher volume of touchdowns creates a more entertaining TV show. But if you’re a purist, especially on defense, then pro football in the 21st Century looks nothing like the grind and grit of old-school smashmouth football when teams relied solely on the run game.
If you never watched any grainy black and white footage of post-WWII football, you’d be shocked that some teams utilized three backs in addition to the quarterback. Some of those teams did not even bother lining up a wide receiver and utilized two tight ends instead. In today’s game, it’s not uncommon to watch an empty backfield with five route runners and five lineman.
Gone are the days when coaches relied on a “three yards and a cloud of dust” offensive philosophy. Football used to be a true battle in the trenches when O-lines fought tooth and nail against D-lines to generate sliver of daylight for a running back.
Margin of Victory: KC Blowout? Tampa Upset?
Kansas City (8-10 ATS) struggled to cover in the spread in the second half of the season. They went 14-2, but didn’t exactly blow teams out of the water. Since Kansas City destroyed the LOL Jets in early November, Kansas City went 2-8 ATS.
The Chiefs are 1-1 ATS in the playoffs and covered in their win against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship.
|SUPER BOWL 55 MARGIN OF VICTORY|
|Wins by 1-3 Points||+700||+700|
|Wins by 4-6 Points||+800||+1000|
|Wins by 7-10 Points||+700||+800|
|Wins by 11-13 Points||+1500||+1800|
|Wins by 14-17 Points||+1200||+1500|
|Wins by 18-21 Points||+1500||+2000|
|Wins by 22+ Points||+1000||+1500|
Tampa Bay posted the better record against the spread at 11-8 ATS. They went 2-1 ATS in the playoffs and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The over went 11-8 in all Tampa Bay games this season.
This season, Tampa struggled in close games decided by a field goal or less with a 1-3 record. KC won six games by four or fewer points in the regular season.
Edge Alert: Margin of Victory
If you want to grind out a small edge with the margin of victory and anticipate a close Super Bowl decided by fewer than 10 points, then consider six coordinated prop bets. Place wagers on both Kansas City and Tampa Bay winning by 1-3, 4-6, and 7-10 points. A $100 wager on six different margin of victory props could yield a min-profit of $100, if either teams wins by 10 or fewer points.
For example, if the Bucs win by 4-6 points, then you can generate a $400 profit. If KC or Tampa wins by a single point, you bank a profit of $100.
Obviously, a big win destroys that strategy, but if it’s a close game, then you can grind out a small profit.
If you’re expecting a blowout (at least in the double-digits), then fire away at a four-pronged wager. A $100 bet on four different KC large margin of victory wagers (e.g. 11-13, 14-17, 18-21, and 22+ points) could produce a minimum profit of $600 if there’s a blowout of 11 or more points. If you’re on the Tom Brady bandwagon and think KC will get spanked, then you can generate a minimum profit of $1,100 if you place single $100 wagers on Tampa winning by 11-13, 14-17, 18-21, ad 22+ points.
Prop Bet: That’s Alotta Points, Bruh!
Teams scored a combined 31 or fewer points in seven out of first 10 Super Bowls when traditional and conservative teams looked to run first and only passed on third down and long situations. Teams scored 31 or fewer points six times over the next 44 Super Bowls.
During the regular season, Tampa finished ranked #3 in scoring with 30.8 ppg and KC finished in sixth in the NFL averaging 29.6 ppg. In the postseason, both Kansas City and Tampa Bay generated 30 points per game.
During the regular season, Tampa Bay’s defense allowed 22.2 ppg (ranked #8) and KC only gave up 22.6 ppg. In the playoffs, KC’s defense played well and allowed only 20.5 ppg, while Tampa’s D gave up only 23 ppg in three road victories.
|SUPER BOWL 55 TOTAL POINTS SCORED|
You can weaponize these “total points scored” prop bets as a hedge against a large over/under bet, and win something back at 4-to-1 odds if your initial bet misses. The consensus total is over/under 56 points. A prop bet on the total points score range of 50-56 pays +400.
In the past I liked betting on the range of total points that just fell shy of hitting the over. For Super Bowl 55, I’d target the 43-49 and 50-56 range. A $100 prop bet on both ranges would provide a wide berth of 43 to 56 points that pays out anywhere between +400 and +450. If both teams score a couple touchdowns, but total misses the current over/under of 56, I could bank a profit between $200 and $250.